Jamaica Imported Nearly Five Times What It Exported. The Reserves Rose Anyway

Jamaica imported US$3,218.3 million in goods against US$674.7 million in exports between January and May 2026, a ratio of roughly 4.8 to 1, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica's trade bulletin released 11 September. Exports fell 12.5 percent from a year earlier. Net international reserves, meanwhile, grew by US$615 million in the same quarter.

Most of the coverage since 11 September stopped at that first number, the nearly-five-to-one ratio, and left it to imply a currency under strain. The reserves data the Bank of Jamaica published for the same window says otherwise, at least for now. Both readings use real, published numbers. Only one of them answers the question a Jamaican importer, exporter or investor actually needs answered this September.

What STATIN's September Release Actually Shows

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica published its International Trade Merchandise Bulletin for January to May 2026 on 11 September, the first full read on Jamaica's goods trade to cover a period well clear of Hurricane Melissa's immediate disruption. Imports for the five months totalled US$3,218.3 million, up 1.8 percent from US$3,161.4 million in the same period of 2025. Exports came in at US$674.7 million, down 12.5 percent from US$770.9 million. The resulting gap, US$2,543.6 million, is what generated the "nearly five times" headlines running across Jamaican outlets this week.

Source: Statistical Institute of Jamaica, International Trade Merchandise Bulletin, released 11 September 2026.

That ratio is not new, and the direction is what actually matters here. STATIN's full-year 2025 release put the annual deficit at US$5.87 billion, on imports of US$7.52 billion against exports of US$1.65 billion, an export coverage ratio of 22 percent. In 2024, that coverage ratio stood at 26.2 percent. Three data points, two full years and one partial one, all point the same way: for every dollar Jamaica earns selling goods abroad, it now spends somewhere between US$4.55 and US$4.77 buying them, and the spread between exports and imports has widened at each measurement since 2024 rather than holding steady.

Where The Widening Actually Came From

STATIN's category breakdown makes the shift specific instead of abstract. On the import side, three categories carried the 1.8 percent rise: raw materials and intermediate goods, up 5.2 percent; capital goods excluding motor cars, up 7.4 percent; and transport equipment, up 6.6 percent. None of those describe consumer spending on finished products. They describe an economy buying the inputs and machinery it needs to keep operating, a materially different story from one where households are simply importing more.

The export side is narrower and more concentrated. A single category, crude materials excluding fuels, a group that includes bauxite and related ores, fell 44.3 percent year over year and did most of the work in dragging total exports down 12.5 percent. Jamaica's top five import partners, the United States, China, Japan, Colombia and Brazil, accounted for US$2,153.3 million of the import bill, up 14.3 percent and now roughly two thirds of everything Jamaica bought abroad. Its top five export destinations, the United States, Russia, the Netherlands, Canada and the United Kingdom, brought in US$507.0 million, essentially flat on 2025 and about three quarters of total export earnings, a concentration that leaves little room to absorb a shock in any one of those five markets.

The Number That Moved The Other Way

Here is the part STATIN's bulletin does not cover, because covering it is not STATIN's job. The Bank of Jamaica's net international reserves rose from US$6.29 billion at the end of December 2025 to US$6.91 billion at the end of March 2026, a gain of US$615 million in the same quarter STATIN's data shows the merchandise gap widening. A country running short of foreign currency to cover its import bill does not typically see its reserves climb by that much in three months.

The reason is straightforward once it is stated plainly. STATIN's bulletin measures merchandise trade only, physical goods crossing the border. It says nothing about tourism receipts or remittances, both large inflows of foreign currency, and neither counted as a merchandise export. Remittances alone totalled US$3.36 billion in 2024, and several 2026 analyses point to that figure climbing again after three straight years of decline, a trend both the Bank of Jamaica and private-sector economists cite as one reason to expect further gains through the rest of 2026.

What is missing from the public record, at least in what STATIN and the Bank of Jamaica had published as of this month, is a single current account figure netting goods, services and transfers together for the equivalent January to May 2026 window. Until that number exists, the honest position is a qualified one either way: the reserves data argues against an imminent currency problem without fully proving the point, and STATIN's merchandise numbers argue for a widening gap without fully explaining how it is being covered month by month.

Photo by frank mckenna / Unsplash.

What Should Actually Worry You

None of this means the trade numbers are fine. STATIN's full-year 2025 breakdown shows exactly where Jamaica's earning power is eroding: alumina earnings fell 25.8 percent to US$534.5 million, mining and quarrying exports fell 21.1 percent, agricultural exports fell 19.1 percent, and manufacturing exports fell 4.5 percent. Every major goods-export sector Jamaica has outside tourism and remittances shrank in the same year reserves happened to hold up.

"Tourism and remittances are holding up an enormous part of that structure, but they should not be asked to conceal weak production forever," Dean Jones, founder of Jamaica Homes, wrote of the same trade figures on 3 September 2026.

That erosion is happening against a specific, dated headwind rather than a vague one. A 10 percent baseline US tariff on Jamaican goods, part of the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff programme, was confirmed still in effect as of July 2026 by trade commentator Elizabeth Morgan, writing in the Jamaica Gleaner, after a temporary exemption for CARICOM exporters expired that same month. NCB Capital Markets' analysis of the prior trade period flagged the US market, which took in more than 40 percent of Jamaican exports in the window it reviewed, as the single point where that tariff would do the most damage. A shrinking export base facing a tariff on the market that buys most of what it still manages to sell is not a problem reserves can offset indefinitely, even a set of reserves as healthy as Jamaica's currently look.

What This Means If You Run A Business Or Watch This Number For A Living

Three habits follow from reading STATIN's release properly rather than by headline. First, separate the currency question from the production question, because different data answers each one. A business worried about the Jamaican dollar should watch the Bank of Jamaica's reserves and FX releases directly, not the merchandise trade balance taken on its own. Second, watch category rather than aggregate. Jamaica's import growth is concentrated in raw materials, capital goods and transport equipment, so a business buying and shipping in those categories specifically should expect landed costs to keep climbing there even while broader consumer import categories stay flat. Third, weight a single month or even a single year cautiously until the same category has moved for two or three periods running. Alumina, mining and agriculture have each posted declines for at least a full year now, which is a genuine pattern; the January to May crude materials drop is one more data point inside that pattern rather than a new story on its own.

This is the same discipline StarApple Analytics applies to every headline economic figure that crosses our desk, whether it is a CSEC pass rate, a GDP print or, this month, a trade bulletin: work out what the number actually measures before deciding what it means. Caribbean businesses working out what a widening import bill and a live US tariff mean for their own numbers have real analytical support in the region now. The Caribbean AI Association has been pushing exactly that kind of measurement discipline across CARICOM's statistical and trade institutions, work that owes a great deal to Adrian Dunkley, founder of StarApple AI, the first AI company built anywhere in the Caribbean. His argument, repeated often enough that it has become something of a house rule at StarApple Analytics, is that a headline figure is only as trustworthy as the reader's understanding of what it actually counts, and what it leaves out.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did STATIN report about Jamaica's trade deficit in September 2026?

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica's International Trade Merchandise Bulletin, released 11 September 2026, showed Jamaica importing US$3,218.3 million in goods against US$674.7 million in exports for January to May 2026, a deficit of US$2,543.6 million. Imports rose 1.8 percent year over year while exports fell 12.5 percent, pushing the import-to-export ratio to roughly 4.8 to 1.

Why did Jamaica's exports fall so much between January and May 2026?

One category did most of the damage. Crude materials excluding fuels, a group that includes bauxite and related ores, fell 44.3 percent year over year and dragged total export earnings down 12.5 percent on its own. STATIN's full-year 2025 data shows this was not an isolated dip: alumina earnings fell 25.8 percent, mining and quarrying exports fell 21.1 percent, and agricultural exports fell 19.1 percent over the full year.

Does a widening trade deficit mean the Jamaican dollar is at risk?

Not on the evidence published so far. STATIN's merchandise trade bulletin measures goods only, so it excludes tourism receipts and remittances, both large inflows of foreign currency. The Bank of Jamaica's net international reserves rose from US$6.29 billion at the end of December 2025 to US$6.91 billion at the end of March 2026, a gain of US$615 million in the same quarter the merchandise gap widened, which argues against an imminent currency problem even though the full current account picture for the same months has not yet been published.

How is Jamaica financing a trade gap this large?

Chiefly through tourism earnings and remittances, neither of which counts as a merchandise export in STATIN's trade data. Remittances totalled US$3.36 billion in 2024, and multiple 2026 analyses point to that figure rising again after three straight years of decline. Jamaica Homes founder Dean Jones summarised the mechanism directly: tourism and remittances are carrying a large share of the load that a shrinking goods-export base used to carry on its own.

Is Jamaica's 2026 trade deficit worse than in previous years?

Yes, on the coverage ratio that matters most. Jamaica's export coverage ratio, exports as a share of imports, fell from 26.2 percent in 2024 to 22 percent for full-year 2025, and the January to May 2026 ratio of roughly 21 percent continues that decline. In dollar terms, Jamaica spent about US$4.55 on imports for every US$1 it earned exporting in 2025, and that ratio has widened further so far in 2026.

What is driving the increase in Jamaica's import bill?

Three categories, all tied to productive activity rather than consumer spending: raw materials and intermediate goods, up 5.2 percent; capital goods excluding motor cars, up 7.4 percent; and transport equipment, up 6.6 percent, for January to May 2026 against the same period in 2025. The five countries supplying most of that growth, the United States, China, Japan, Colombia and Brazil, accounted for US$2,153.3 million, about two thirds of the total import bill.

Could the US tariff on Jamaican exports make the deficit worse?

It is a real risk rather than a settled outcome. A 10 percent baseline US tariff on Jamaican goods, part of the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff programme, was confirmed still in effect as of July 2026 after a brief exemption expired that month, according to trade commentator Elizabeth Morgan writing in the Jamaica Gleaner. NCB Capital Markets' analysis of the prior trade period flagged the US market, which took in more than 40 percent of Jamaican exports in the window it reviewed, as the single point where that tariff would do the most damage to an already-shrinking export base.

What should a Jamaican business or investor actually watch instead of the deficit headline?

Two separate things, tracked separately. For currency and reserve risk, watch the Bank of Jamaica's net international reserves and FX rate releases rather than the merchandise trade balance alone. For production risk, watch category-level export data over two or three consecutive periods rather than one release, since alumina, mining and agriculture have now posted declines for at least a full year, a genuine pattern rather than a single bad month.

Where This Leaves Jamaica's External Position

Jamaica's merchandise trade gap widened again in the five months STATIN just reported on, driven mostly by a 44.3 percent fall in crude material exports and financed, for now, by tourism and remittance flows the trade bulletin does not measure. Net international reserves rose US$615 million in the same quarter. Alumina, mining and agricultural export earnings all fell through 2025, and the 10 percent US tariff confirmed in effect this July sits directly on top of the market that buys most of what Jamaica still manages to sell. STATIN publishes its next Trade Merchandise Bulletin, covering the full six months to June, in the coming weeks.

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